莒县胃癌年龄别死亡率Gompertz曲线拟合的探讨

AN APPROACH TO THE GOMPERTZ CURVILINEAR FIT OF THE AGE-SPECIFIC DEATH-RATE OF THE SUFFERERS FROM GASTRIC CANCER IN JUXIAN COUNTY

采用Gompertz曲线对莒县1986～1990年胃瘤年龄别死亡率进行了拟合检验,并与直线、指数曲线、二次抛物线进行了比较,以Gompertz曲线拟合比较理想。描绘了胃癌死亡率年龄分布的理论轨迹,为胃癌死亡预测提供了一种简便科学的方法。

The age-specific death-rate of the sufferers from gastric cancer in Juxian County from 1986 to 1990 has beea put to the test of fit by means of the Gompertz curve. Compared with the straight line, the exponential curve and the secondary parabola, the Gompertz curvilinear fit is thought to be better. It has been depicted that the theoretical locus of age distribution of the mortality of the sufferers from gastric cancer, which offers a simple and scientific method for the prediction of the death of the gastric cancer sufferers.