一种用动力产品制作大—暴雨概率预报的方法

AN EXPERIMENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL POP

本文提出了在短期值班预报和常规动力MOS预报业务的基础上,进行大一暴雨预报的深层次动力统计预报方法。在南京地区进行了方法的试验探讨,建立了前汛期大一暴雨概率预报工具,其历史拟合、试报和1990、91年的业务预报均较理想。

In this paper, the method of preparing heavy rainfall probability is Suggested by using NWP products. Based on the experience accumulated from short range operational and routine MOS precipitation prediction, the application of NWP products is further developed and equations of heavy rai n fall probability prediction for single station during early flood season are obtained. And its accuracy for dependent and independent historical samples test as well as operational prediction is satisfactory.