系统动态仿真与农业企业综合发展规划

Researches on the Synthetiz Development Planning of 131 State Farm Using System Dynamics

农垦企业面临着提高经济效益和建立适宜的农业生态系统结构等极其重要的问题.为了寻求解决这些问题的途径,我们利用福雷斯特教授创立的系统动态仿真方法,对复杂社会经济系统的农垦企业——131团的综合发展规划进行了探索性研究.以提高系统整体功能为前提,对系统进行了长期的、动态的、战略的分析研究,在关联中分析问题,在动态发展中追踪规律,探索系统到本世纪末的发展趋势.

The agricultural reclamation enterprises are confronted with the vital question of raising economic benefit and construction of oasis agroecosystem.We proceeded the new exploration for seeking the path of solving the problem.The agricultural reclamation enterprises belongs to a social economic system. We must start from the whole of the system for studying it's development planning in analying the problem among connections, to discover the law and to explore trend of development in the dynamic development of system. We study the total projection of development planning with the method of dynamic that is constructed by Professor Jay. W. Forrester for Farm 131.