基于小波变换的广东省年降水量序列多时间尺度分析

Multi - time Scale Analysis of Annual Rainfall Series in Guangdong Province Based on Wavelet Transform

采用Morlet小波分析广东省内26个气象站1958—2010年的年降水量周期变化得出,第一主周期为4 a,第二主周期为12 a,第三主周期为7 a;依据第一、第二主周期的变化趋势,预测2011—2012年、2011—2016年为年降水偏少期;通过实测数据验证得出,2011年广东省年降水量较多年平均值减小17.5%,显示小波周期分析结果具有一定合理性。

In this paper we have analyzed the multi-time scales characteristics of annual rainfall of 26 meteorological stations from 1958 to 2010 in Guangdong Province based on the morlet wavelet transform,result shows that the first principal period was 4a,the second principal period was 12a and the third principal period was 7a.According to the change trend of the first principal period,it could predict that the annual rainfall would be less from 2011 to 2012,while according the second principle period it would be less from 2011 to 2016.Correspondly,the measured data shows that the annual rainfall in 2011 is reduced by 17.5% of the average value,which proves that result of the analysis based on morlet wavelet transform is rational.