利用伴随法对热带气旋异常路径的模拟研究

Study on the simulation of some tropical cyclones' aberrant tracks with the adjoint method

将伴随方法应用于SD-90中,通过对实际台风路径的同化即最优拟合,模拟反演出异常路径台风所受的综合力,试图揭示异常路径台风所受综合力随时间的分布特征.研究结果表明:在SD-90中应用伴随方法后,模式对异常路径的模拟效果较好,特别是在台风突然转向前后,其所受综合力的大小和方向变化对台风异常路径具有很好的引导作用.

The adjoint method was applied to SD-90, which can invert the comprehensive forces acting on the tropical cyclones with aberrant tracks, and can describe the temporal distribution features of synthetic forces of tropical cyclones and precisely predict the eventual path of a cyclone. The result of the study showed that, with the application of the adjoint method for SD-90, the scheme behaved very well, simulating the abnormal tropical cyclones’ paths precisely. Before and after the studied tropical cyclones making abrupt turns or irregular rotations, the synthetic forces changed obviously in magnitudes and directions.