基于引力模型的中国-东盟水产品贸易流量与潜力研究

A Study of Trade Flow and Potential of Sino-ASEAN Aquatic Product Trade Based on a Gravity Model

截取中国与东盟2000-2011年水产品贸易面板数据,运用引力模型测算贸易流量表明,经济规模、人均GDP差额及中国东盟自由贸易区建立后的零关税对双边水产品贸易增量影响较强且呈正相关性,地理距离对其影响较弱且呈负相关性,人口规模和中国水产品总产量并没有如预期中对中国-东盟水产品贸易起到显著作用。在发展潜力方面,中国与越南、新加坡、马来西亚属于潜力再造型,中国与菲律宾属于潜力开拓型,中国与泰国、印度尼西亚属于潜力巨大型。

Based on 2000 -2011 panel data ,this paper constructs trade gravity model to study the trade flow of aquatic products between China and ASEAN .The results show that economic scales per capi-ta GDP gap and zero-tariff policy have great positive correlations with trade flow ,and geographic distance has a slightly negative correlation with it ,while the size of the population and the output of Chinese aquat-ic products have no significant effect on it .In terms of trade potential ,China ,Vietnam ,Singapore ,and Malaysia have potential repeating ability ,China and Philippines have the potential of development ,and China ,Thailand ,and Indonesia have great potential .