老龄化背景下城镇职工医疗保险基金收支变化趋势及对策研究——以吉林省为例

The Variation Tendency of Medical Insurance Fund for Urban Workers and Measures in the context of Ageing:A case of Jilin Province

本文构建了老龄化背景下城镇职工医疗保险基金收支变化趋势的量化分析模型,然后利用吉林省城镇职工医疗保险的抽样数据进行了实例分析。结果显示2010-2020年期间人口老龄化将使吉林省城镇职工医疗保险基金收入年增长约0.92%,基金支出年增长约3.55%,在2021年左右面临支出大于收入的风险。对此提出的政策建议包括政府主导构建医疗保险基金储备、利用数据优势完善医保支付方式、倡导医疗服务的理性消费。

This paper instructs the model of analyzing variation tendency of the medical insurance fund for urban workers under the context of ageing. Based on the sample data of Jilin province urban workers' medical insurance, this paper estimates the impact of ageing on the income and expense of medical insurance by incorporating the variation trend of population structure. The result indicates that 2010- 2020 population ageing will result in about 0. 92% annual income increase and 3. 55% annual expense increase of the insurance fund. The insurance fund will face the risk of outspending the income in 2021. The countermeasures include building reserve fund system of health insurance by government,developing the insurance payment with data advantage,and advocating the rational consumption of medical service.