近30年来辽宁省人口增长的空间关联性研究

SPACE CORRELATION RESEARCH OF POPULATION GROWTH IN LIAONING PROVINCE FOR NEARLY 30 YEARS

改革开放以来,随着辽宁省经济不断发展以及空间差异新变化,人口的增长也呈现出明显的空间关联性,并具有一定的时间阶段特点.作者选取1980 ～2012年人口增长数据,根据实际需要把辽宁省划分为61个基本空间单元,采用Geoda095i空间统计分析工具,分7个发展阶段对辽宁省人口增长进行空间关联性分析.结果显示,1980～2012年全省人口增长的Moran'I指数均为正值,反映出辽宁省各区域人口的增长具有显著的空间正相关性,并且随着时间变化,总体相关性呈现出“较弱-较强-较弱-较强-较弱”的阶段变化特征;同时,LISA指数反映的人口增长的局部相关及热点区域主要分布在沈阳-大连所连接起来的轴线上、环渤海地区和距离沈阳较近的辽东部分区域,且集聚模式多样化.

In recent years,many scholars used patial statistical method to research the differences and connections of geographical space from the aspects of economy,population etc. At present,many scholars only studied the correlation from the aspect of economy in Liaoning province. It lacked the aw areness from the population. As an important indicator of regional development measuring,the population element had the extremely important research value. This article chosen population grow th data from 1980 to 2012 of Liaoning province,divided into 61basic spatial units according to the actual need,w ith the combination of Geoda095i spatial statistical analysis tools to analysis population grow th in Liaoning province on six development stages of spatial correlation. Results show ed that the Moran s' I index of the province's population grow th w as positive during the period of 1980- 2012,reflected the grow th of population in each region of Liaoning province had significant positive correlations of space,and as time changed,the overall correlation w as presented the phase changed character of w eaker- stronger-w eaker- stronger- w eaker; At the same time,The population grow th of hot spots w hich LISA index correlated w ere mainly distributed on the axis of the Shenyang- Dalian,link of Bohai areas,Liaodong areas close to Shenyang and agglomeration mode diversification.