基于Bass模型的中国移动互联网用户扩散研究

The Research on User Diffusion of China's Mobile Internet Based on the Bass Model

移动互联网近年来在我国迅速发展,已有研究表明移动互联网的用户扩散过程呈S型生长曲线。本文使用Bass模型对中国移动互联网用户扩散过程进行了实证分析,结果表明:移动互联网的用户扩散模仿系数较大、创新系数较小,并预测至2016年,中国移动互联网活跃用户数将达到7.56亿。

Mobile Internet has developed rapidly in China in recent years. Relative researches have sug-gested that the process of user diffusion of mobile internet is closed to a s-shaped curve. This essay made an empirical analysis on the process of user diffusion of China's user of mobile internet by the method of the Bass model. It turned out that the imitation coefficient is higher and the innovation coefficient is low-er. The essay has also forecasted that the number of active users of China's mobile Internet will reach to 756 million by 2016 .