基于情景分析的建筑安全事故预警机制

The Early-warning Mechanism of Construction Safety Accident Based on Scenario Analysis

为完善建筑安全事故预警机制,引入了情景分析法,分析了影响建筑安全事故预警决策的关键因素,基于因果分析图剖析了建筑安全事故的原因,并运用模糊综合评判方法识别出核心驱动力量,进而选择不确定轴面,发展情景逻辑,最终形成了建筑安全事故预警机制。最后通过实例分析,验证了基于情景分析的建筑安全事故预警机制的有效性。

To improve early-warning mechanism(EM) of construction safety accidents(CSA),scenario analysis is introduced into this paper to study EM of CSA.The key factors that affect warning decision of CSA are analyzed.The cause of CSA is dissected based on the cause-effect diagram,and we use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to identify the core driving force,and then select the uncertain axis,develop scenarios logic,eventually form EM of CSA.Finally,an example verifies the effectiveness of EM of CSA based on scenario analysis.