食源性疾病暴发风险模型的构建及预测方法研究

The risk model construction and prediction method of food-borne disease outbreaks

目的 构建评价食源性疾病暴发流行病学风险的模型.方法 采用模糊综合评判法对食源性疾病暴发的风险进行量化分级,组织浙江省内食品安全方面的专家通过德尔菲法确定评价因子的权重.利用模糊数学综合评判法构建食源性疾病暴发的风险模型构建,并对该模型进行验证和讨论.结果 舟山市4个县(区)均属于“安全”区域,食源性疾病暴发风险评价分值分别为:定海区48分、普陀区66分、岱山县41分、嵊泗县47分.结论 食源性疾病暴发的风险模型不仅适合食源性疾病暴发风险的评价,而且对指导居民食品摄入并且避免患食源性疾病有重要意义.

Objective To establish the models and evaluate the epidemiological risks of food-borne disease outbreaks.Methods Risk of food-borne disease outbreaks would be graded by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.The food security experts in Zhejiang were organized to determine the weights of evaluation factors by Delphi method.The risk model of food-borne disease outbreaks should be constructed by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,and to be discussed and verified.Results All of food-borne disease outbreaks risk level was the security level in four counties in Zhoushan.The score in 4 counties were 48(Dinghai),66(Putuo),41(Daishan) and 47(Shengsi),respectively.Conclusions Risk model of food-bome disease outbreaks is not only suitable for the food-borne disease outbreaks risk,but also to guide the residents food intake and avoid significant suffering from food-borne disease.