摘要
金融和贸易在共同促进经济增长的同时已显现出两者的内在相关性,而其在我国的相互作用效果并不明显并具有特殊性。深化对我国金融及银行信贷规模指标与国际贸易指标因果关系的探讨,可为研究金融发展理论在我国国际贸易领域的实际应用提供一个有益途径。在通常使用的格兰杰因果分析基础上,格维克分解检验对样本短期因果效应的剖析可强化分析结论。基本的分析结论是,改革开放以来我国银行信贷规模发展为国际贸易增长创造了有利条件。然而,我国金融发展仍显不足,尤其是融资不均衡现象长期存在。
There occurs an internal correlation in finance and trade while both of them play the same role in promoting the growth of economy.However,their interactive effects in China are not clear and have their own features.The thorough study of the causal relationship between the indicators of commercial credit development and the international trade development may provide an effective way to test how financial development theory works in China's international trade.Based on the commonly used Granger causality analysis,Geweke decomposition of cause test can reinforce the explanation of its conclusion,which shows that the increasing growth of the bank credit from 1978 helped the development of the international trade in China.However,there still some flaws in China's finance,especially the problem of the imbalances in financing.
基金
浙江省哲学社会科学规划项目(09CGJJ014YBX)
