我国通货膨胀与经济增长关系的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between China's Inflation and Its Economic Growth

在环形菲利普斯曲线理论的基础上引入奥肯定律,对我国1979-2010年的通货膨胀与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析,验证了我国长期中通货膨胀与经济增长之间所呈现的环形运行特征;接着,研究了我国最新发生的通货膨胀与经济增长关系,并进一步分析了各种通货膨胀因素以及通货膨胀不确定性对经济增长的影响;最后,结合我国长期与短期的通货膨胀与经济增长关系,简要分析了我国下一阶段经济运行可能出现的情况。

An empirical study on the relationship between the inflation and economic growth from 1979 to 2010 in China has been done with making the Aoken's law integrated with the circular Phillips curve theory,which verifies the circular characteristics of the trajectory between the inflation and economic growth.Then,the relationship between the inflation and economic growth in China has been discussed with a further analysis on the effect of various inflation factors as well as the inflation uncertainty in the economic growth.In the end of the paper,the possible economic situation of China in the future related with the relationship between China's inflation and its economic growth are analyzed.