摘要
把灾害要素的综合作用以"情景"方式表达,借鉴植物生长动力学理论,设计非常规突发事件演化的微观动力机制与事件宏观发展的控制方法。在微观动力机制的作用下,事件会形成演化路径迥异的宏观结果,不同演化路径和宏观结果将以不同的概率分布呈现出来,这些概率分布是对可能出现的各类演化结果进行应急管理的决策依据。有了基于微观机制的动力学模型,就能对复杂事件发展的宏观结果进行推演,进而从理论和试验的角度为提升应对非常规突发事件的能力提供决策依据。
The comprehensive effect of disaster factors is expressed with 'scenario' style herein.The research uses plant growth dynamics theory to design microcosmic dynamical mechanism and macrocosmic development control method of unconventional emergency evolution.Under the work of microcosmic dynamical mechanism,an unconventional emergency may generate different evolution paths and grades.The different evolution paths and macrocosmic results can be presented by different probability distributions,which is emergency management decision basis for all kinds of probable evolution results.Based on the microcosmic dynamical mechanism,the macrocosmic results of complex events development can be deducted,and then it can improve the emergency management ability in China from both aspects of theory and experiment.
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71173066
711710701)
浙江省自然科学基金项目(Y7100447
Y6110730)
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(12YJAZH063)
关键词
非常规突发事件
模拟植物生长算法
情景
演化
unconventional emergency
Plant Growth Simulation Algorithm(PGSA)
scenario
evolution
