我国上市银行净利润间的协整分析

The Co-integrated Analysis of the Net Profits of Listed Banks in Our Country

影响银行企业净利润变动的原因有许多,国内现有文献一般是从银行业与市场的结构层面来找原因。本文应用协整理论和向量误差修正模型,从我国上市银行净利润间的长期关系中寻找净利润变动的原因,这是文章的创新点。从长期来看,浦发银行与民生银行、招商银行的净利润间是互补关系,民生银行与招商银行的净利润间有明显挤出效应。针对这一结论,本文建议浦发银行与民生银行、招商银行应建立合作伙伴关系,民生银行与招商银行应建立协作竞争关系。文中介绍的分析净利润间长期关系的方法,可以用来研究一般同类企业或产业链企业净利润间变动的原因。

There are numerous factors to influence the net profit changes of bank enterprises. The domestic documents available are generally searching for the reason from the aspects of bank industry and market construction. This article uses the Co-integration Theory and the Vector Error Correction Model to search for the cause of such net profit changes from the long-term connections among the net profits of Listed Banks in our country, which is the creative point of this article. In the long term, the net profits between Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and China Minsheng Banking Corporation or China Merchants Banks have a complementary connection, while the net profits between China Minsheng Banking Corporation and China Merchants Banks have an obvious crowding-out effect. In view of this conclusion, this article suggests that Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and China Minsheng Banking Corporation or China Merchants Banks should establish a cooperating companion relationship, while China Minsheng Banking Corporation and China Merchants Banks should establish a cooperating competitive relationship. The methods of analyzing the long-term connections of net profits can be used to study general enterprises of the same kind as well as the reason for the net profit changes among a chain of enterprises.