“中俄结盟”为何缺乏现实可行性——基于两国关系历史和现实的考量

Why "Sino-Russian Alliance" Lacks Feasibility——Based on Analysis of the History and the Current State of Their Bilateral Relations

在中国外交面临的国际和地区压力不断加大的背景下,中国学术界有观点提出以中俄结盟为战略应对。这一主张认为,中俄联盟能给中国带来一系列重大战略利益。不结盟原则对中俄结盟是现实的限制,但从理论上说,它不是不可逾越的门坎。结盟的正效应实际上不会有预期的高,而其可能的负效应会对中俄关系的长期稳定产生重大影响。结盟论者对俄罗斯存在误判,一些立论是建立在不准确的判断之上。战略合作仍是现阶段中俄关系最适宜的形式。

Under the background of increasing international and regional pressure facing Chinese diplomacy, some Chinese academics propose responding to it by strategically aligning with Russia. They argue that the Sino-Russian alliance will bring China a range of major strategic interests. Though China's pursuit of the non-alignment principle is a practical limit on the Sino-Russian alliance, it is not an unsolvable problem in theory. The positive effects of such an alliance will not be as high as expected, whereas the negative effects will possibly have a significant impact on the long-term stability of the relationship between China and Russia. Those pro-alliance scholars have certain misjudgment on Russia, and some of their arguments are based on incorrect judgment. At present, strategic cooperation is still the most suitable form of Sino-Russian relations.