经济起飞的周期、等级与后发优势——中国引领新一轮产业革命的可能性探析

The Cycle and Level of and the Late-starter Advantage in Economic Take-offs——Analyzing the Possibility of a China-led New Round of Industrial Revolution

目前,中国掌握了很多现代科技知识,同时也具有研发诸多领域前沿科技的能力。但是,中国还不是站在科研开发前沿的国家。本文在回顾历次产业革命与各国经济发展经验的基础上,总结一般性规律,以期为中国和其他发展中国家提供有价值的启示;同时,考察解放后中国经济发展的成就和不足,提出应对新一轮产业革命的参考意见;并讨论"李约瑟之谜"和"钱学森之问",为改进人才培养机制和提高"社会能力",进一步发挥"后发优势"提供了建议。

At present, China has mastered a vast knowledge of modern science and technology and also has the ability to conduct research and development for cutting-edge technologies in a variety of fields. However, China is still not standing at the forefront of scientific research and development compared to other countries. This article reviewed the former industrial revolutions and the experience of certain countries in economic development, aiming to provide useful guidance for China and other developing countries. At the same time, this article explored China's achievements and deficiencies in economic development in the post-liberation era and proposed ways to deal with the new round of industrial revolution. It also discussed the 'Joseph Needham Riddle' and the 'Qian Xuesen's Question' and provided suggestions on improving the mechanism for personnel training, enhancing 'social abilities', and using the late-starter advantage.