基于可能性决策的CGF敌情预测智能模拟

Forecast and Simulation of Adversary Action Based on Possibilistic Decision Method

面向高级指挥训练和方案计划推演的兵棋系统需要能够进行战场敌情智能预测的CGF,而敌情预测本身又是"像敌人一样思考和决策"的过程。可能性决策是解决知识不完备情况下决策预测的有力手段,从可能性理论基本公理体系出发,结合动态规划方法,提出并证明可能性决策的最优化定理,给出多步条件下可能性决策的实现算法,结合危机条件下敌方行动预测的范例和仿真分析,与传统概率风险决策进行比较,体现可能性决策的优越性,为其推广应用创造条件。

The high-level commander training & construction of military operation require the CGF’s intellectual ability of forecasting,which is a process of 'thinking and decision-making just like the enemy'.The possibilistic method is expected to be a powerful means to solve the decision-making and forecasting problem under the conditions that the knowledge is far from complete.Starting from the basic definition of the theory of probability and the axiom system and combined with the principle of dynamic programming,an optimization theorem of possibilistic decision was proposed and proved,as a result,the realization algorithm of multi-step decision was brought out.Finally,the possibilistic decision method was applied to an example of adversary action forecast in crisis with simulation to show how the method works and where is the superiority.