我国艾滋病疫情发展趋势预测和防控措施分析

Prediction of ADIS epidemic situation development and analysis of prevention-control measurements

目的从社会系统工程角度开展艾滋病疫情发展趋势预测和综合防治分析。方法运用演化博弈理论建立艾滋病疫情传播模型,根据卫生部公布1990-2009年每年新增艾滋病病毒感染者和艾滋病人数,对疫情传播进行了Logistic方程拟合和疫情传播峰值点的预测。结果在疫情得到有效控制的最佳演化情景下,2022年我国内地艾滋病疫情扩散达到峰值点,估计PLHIV人数达到140.4万人,全人群感染率达到0.102%。政府根据疫情传播的新形势积极调整艾滋病疫情防控策略,有助于遏制疫情蔓延。结论艾滋病疫情传播的演化博弈模型将社会学意义上的人群行为与病毒学意义上的自然传播机理融合起来,能够有效地预测疫情发展趋势和分析调整防控措施的综合影响。

Objective To predict ADIS epidemic situation development and analyze prevention-control measurements from the viewpoint of social system engineering.Methods:ADIS epidemic situation diffusion model were built by using evolutionary game theory,and ADIS epidemic situation fitting with Logistic equation and the peak value of was forecasted according to the new cases with HIV/ADIS in 1990-2009 announced by Chinese Ministry of Health.Results:Under the optimal scenarios that ADIS epidemic situation has been effectively controlled,the peak value of PLHIV in China should reach at 1404 thousand in 2022,and the infection rate should reach 0.102% in total population.Government actively adjusts prevention-control measurements according the new ADIS epidemic situation would be helpful to limit its spread.Conclusions:ADIS epidemic situation diffusion model using evolutionary game theory combining the sociological behavioral analysis with the virological diffusing mechanism,could be used for effectively predicting the trend of ADIS epidemic situation and the influence of prevention-control measurements.