水污染物总量分配不确定性分析研究进展

Review of The Study On the Uncertainty Analysis in Total Pollutant Load Allocation

总量控制是我国环境管理的基本制度之一,对保护和改善水环境质量起到了重要作用。总量分配是以水环境质量达标为前提,将污染物允许排放量分配到污染源或排污区域的过程,是实施污染物总量控制的前提。总量分配过程中由于规划方案、规划模型、参数确定等方面存在的客观不确定性或主观不确定性,导致总量分配结果存在误差或分配结果的非唯一性,因此不确定性分析对提高总量分配的科学性和可靠性具有十分重要的意义。论文对国内外污染物总量分配不确定性的研究进展进行了阐述,重点阐述了不确定性及总量分配不确定性的相关概念,以及总量分配不确定性的研究内容,包括模型参数的不确定性、规划模型的不确定性、多目标总量控制不确定性和基于不确定性的安全余量研究,并对目前总量分配不确定性研究存在的问题和未来发展进行了总结。

Total pollutant load control is one of the basic environmental management measures in China, and plays an important role to protect and improve the water environment. The total pollutant load allocation, that is, allocation of the allowable discharge of the pollutant to pollution sources or regions under the condition that the water quality target is satisfied, is the basis to carry out the total pollutant load control. Due to the objective and subjective uncertainty in the allocation scheme, model and parameters, the total pollutant load allocation result is not the only one. So uncertainty analysis is very meaningful to improve the scientificness and reliability. The progress in the uncertainty analysis of total pollutant load allocation was reviewed in this paper, including the concepts of uncertainty, the uncertainty in the total load allocation, model parameters, planning model, multi-objective total load control and the marginal safety analysis based on uncertainty analysis. Finally, the problems and possible future development of the uncertainty analysis in the total load allocation were summarized.