基于前景理论的动态参考点应急决策方法研究

Study on the Emergency Decision Method of Dynamic Reference Point based on Prospect Theory

针对突发事件应急决策的特点,本文提出了基于前景理论的动态参考点应急决策方法。首先,对应急决策的动态参考点和方案的延续性进行描述;然后,基于前景理论的思想,介绍随着突发事件的不断发展所造成的损失,决策者动态调整心理参考点,并根据实时的损失与决策者心理参考点的比较为依据,动态调整相应的应急方案,以便能够及时、有效地控制事态的进一步发展,最后通过案例说明该方法的可行性和有效性。

With respect to the features of emergency decision making,a prospect-theory-based dynamic reference point for emergency decision making method is proposed in this paper.Firstly,the dynamic reference point of emergency decision and alternatives continuity are described.Then,based on the idea of prospect theory,with the loss caused by the continuous development of emergencies,decision maker do dynamically adjust the psychological point of reference.According to the comparison of the real-time loss and decision maker' s psychological point of reference,decision maker adjust the corresponding emergency alternatives dynamically,so as timely and effectively to control the situation to further development.Finally,an example is given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.