基于系统动力学的我国居民电价政策动态决策模型

Chinese Residential Electrovalence Policy Dynamic Decision Model Based on System Dynamics

居民电价是销售电价中最特殊的一项。用户分散产生的高供电成本和供电行业的自然垄断性导致的市场失灵,使以成本和市场为基础的传统定价理论遇到挑战。我们首先分析了影响居民电价的主要因素;然后,以系统动力学为基础,通过仿真软件,建立了居民电价动态仿真模型。在此基础上,从居民承受能力,平均销售电价,替代能源价格变动三个角度进行了居民电价政策仿真试验,并结合模拟结果提出了一些政策建议。

Residential electrovalence is one of the most special items of sales price.The traditional pricing theory which is based on cost and market had met the challenge from two main aspects.The first one is high cost of power supply which is generated by users dispersed.The second one is market failure which is caused by natural monopoly of power supply industry,Firstly,the main influence factors of residential electrovalence is analyzed.Then,based on system dynamics,dynamic simulation model of residential electrovalence is established,by simulation software.On this basis,simulation of residential electrovalence policy is operated from the perspectives of residents' tolerance,average sales price and alternative energy.Finally,combined with the results,some targeted suggestions are given.