基于马尔科夫链模型的城市热岛扩散趋势预测——以天津滨海新区为例

Prediction of Urban Heat Island Expansion Based on Markov Chain Theory

随着天津城市的快节奏发展,城市热岛效应已经成为影响城市环境质量的典型代表。本文以天津市滨海新区为例,分别选取1992,1998,2006以及2009年4景不同时期的Landsat卫星影像数据(TM/ETM+),利用Artist&Camahan单窗算法对研究区进行域地表温度的反演,同时确定热岛范围;然后借助转移矩阵模型定量分析研究区域城市热岛的变化情况,最后基于马尔科夫链理论最城市热岛变化趋势进行预测。结果表明:滨海新区17年间城市热岛效应不断加剧,若无人工干预,在未来的10年里,滨海新区热环境将有进一步恶化的趋势。

With the rapid development of Tianjin,urban heat island has been one of one of primary problems of urban environmental quality. In this paper,taking Tianjin Binhai New Area as an example,based on Landsat satellite data( TM / ETM +) with different years( 1992,1998,2006 and 2009),the land surface temperature and the range of UHI were calculated with the Artist&Camahan monowindow algorithm method. Moreover,the quantitative analysis of the trend UHI expansion was analyzed by transfer matrix model. Finally,the result of prediction of urban heat island was got by using Markov chain model. The results indicate that,in the past 17 years( from 1998 to 2009),the expansion trend of UHI in Tianjin Binhai New Area has been significantly increased. Meanwhile,in the next future 10 years,the thermal environment will be further deteriorate without human intervention.