基于模糊数学的山岭隧道施工塌方风险评估

Risk Assessment of Collapse During Construction of Mountain Tunnel Based on Fuzzy Mathematics

通过统计资料总结了山岭隧道施工塌方的影响因素,遴选出6个最主要因素作为模糊数学分析的二级评价指标,并细化了21个一级评价指标及其分级标准,最后建立了山岭隧道塌方风险二级综合评价模型;根据评价指标的确定性信息和不确定性信息,及考虑历史统计资料,采用层次分析法(AHP)与构建隶属度函数确定一级评价指标的权重,采用采用频数统计法和层次分析法相结合的组合赋权法进行确定二级评价指标的权重。该模型在博深高速公路石鼓隧道得到了运用和验证,其分析结果可信,该模型可行、合理。

Based on the mountain tunnel construction accident statistics,the factors are summed up and 6 major factors are selected as second level evaluation indexes in fuzzy mathematical analysis of mountain tunnel construction collapse. The authors also refine 21 first level evaluation indexes and corresponding grading standards. These indexes and standards are used to establish a two-stage synthetic model for the mountain tunnel collapse risk assessment. According to the uncertain and uncertain information of evaluation with the historical statistics,the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) method and membership function are applied to evaluate the weight of the first level evaluation indexes. AHP and Frequency Statistical method are used to evaluate the weight of the second level evaluation indexes. This assessment model has been applied to Shigu Tunnel in Bo Luo to Shenzhen Expressway and the analytical results confirm that the model is feasible and reasonable.