我国服务贸易与不同层次人力资本关系的实证研究

Empirical Study on Relationship between Service Trade and All Levels of Human Capital in China

文章以我国1982~2008年度间的数据为基础,运用协整分析方法和Granger因果检验对我国服务贸易与不同层次人力资本关系进行了实证研究,得出以下两点结论:一是不同层次人力资本与传统服务贸易以及与新兴服务贸易均存在长期关系,传统服务贸易与高等教育程度人力资本是负相关关系,与中等教育程度人力资本和基础教育程度人力资本均是正相关关系,而新兴服务贸易与高等教育程度人力资本是正相关关系,与中等教育程度人力资本和基础教育程度人力资本均是负相关关系;二是传统服务贸易和新兴服务贸易是不同层次人力资本变化的Granger原因,但不同层次人力资本不是传统服务贸易和新兴服务贸易变化的Granger原因。

The article using our country during 1982-2008 year data,in carries on cointegration analysis and granger causality test to empirical study on relationship between service trade and all levels of human capital in our country,draws the following two conclusions: First,there is long-term relationships to traditional service trade and emerging service trade with all levels of human capital,It is a negative correlation between traditional service trade and higher education degree's human capital,It is a positive correlation between traditional service trade and secondary education and basic education degree's human capital,but it is a positive correlation between emerging service trade and higher education degree's human capital,It is a negative correlation between emerging service trade and secondary education and basic education degree's human capital;Second,traditional service trade and emerging service trade are granger cause to a change of all levels of human capital,but all levels of human capital are not granger cause to a change of traditional service trade and emerging service trade.