2001年以来省域旅游竞争力的时空演化分析

TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF PROVINCIAL TOURISM COMPETITIVENESS SINCE 2001

以中国大陆31个省级区域2001～2010年的面板数据为例,通过熵值法确定各项指标的权重,运用变异系数、锡尔系数、重心与标准差椭圆、G指数等分析技术,对各地区各项旅游竞争力以及总体旅游竞争力的空间演化进行分析。结果表明:在当前条件下,旅游市场竞争力是影响旅游竞争力的最主要因素,2001～2010年,中国大陆各省旅游竞争力之间的差距总体上减小,其中东中西三大地带内和地带间的差异也出现缩小趋势。省际旅游竞争力呈现出西北-东南的空间分布格局,其重心总体上向东南发生偏移。G指数分析表明,总体上各项旅游竞争力得到一定程度的提高,旅游竞争力热点区与冷点区都出现扩大的趋势,热点区主要集中在华南与长三角部分省份,冷点区主要分布在北方及西部部分省份。研究旅游竞争力的时空演化,可以发现省域旅游业发展的"软肋",对促进地方旅游业的发展,平衡区域旅游差距具有重要的作用。

By selecting the panel data of 31provinces from 2001 to 2010,using the entropy method to determine the weight of each indicator,and the methods of variation coefficient,theil index,gravity centre and standard deviational ellipses,Getis-Ord Gi*,this article described the spatial evolution of total tourism competitiveness and various competitiveness of 31provinces.The results show that under the current conditions,the tourism marketing competitiveness was the most important factor that affected the tourism competitiveness,followed by tourism resource competitiveness,tourism industrial competitiveness,and tourism insurance competitiveness.The tourism competitiveness gap between the mainland provinces had decreased from 2001 to 2010,the differentiation among the three belts had generally decreased.The provincial tourism competitiveness generally presented a'northwest-southeast'pattern,and the gravity centre generally shifted to the southeast.Through the analysis of G index,it found that every tourism competitiveness had been improved to some extent,the hot-cold spots areas of tourism competitiveness had a widening trend.The hot-spot areas of tourism competitiveness mainly concentrated in some provinces in South China and the Yangtze River Delta,cold-spot areas mainly distributed in some provinces in the North and West of China.Studying the temporal and spatial evolution of tourism competitiveness can find the'soft underbelly'of provincial tourism development.It has a great significant to improve the provincial tourism development and imbalance regional tourism development gap.