安徽省近52年寒潮的气候特征分析

CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF COLD WAVE OF ANHUI PROVINCE IN THE LAST 52 YEARS

利用1960～2012年安徽省77个气象站的逐日温度资料,采用线性趋势、气候倾向率、小波分析等方法对安徽省寒潮活动的气候特征及其变化进行了分析,得出了全省寒潮年际变化、时空分布等基本气候特征以及不同基准期寒潮平均初终日变化,补充和完善了安徽省寒潮气候特征分布方面的统计分析资料,以期为安徽省的气象防灾减灾和地方农业服务提供一定的指导。统计结果表明:安徽省近52a寒潮发生频次北部多于南部,其中山区北坡明显多于山区南坡;寒潮年发生次数存在3个显著周期:22a左右、10～12a、6a左右;全省各站寒潮的平均初日自北向南逐渐推迟,平均终日也基本是自北向南逐渐推迟。每年寒潮活动期以2～3月和11～12月发生频次最高;寒潮频次年际波动大,总体呈线性减少趋势,寒潮开始期趋于推后,而寒潮结束期提前,气候变暖是安徽省寒潮发生变化的可能原因。

Based on the data of the daily mean temperature and minimum temperature of 77meteorological stations in Anhui province during 1960-2012,the spatio-temporal distribution and inter-annual variation of cold wave in Anhui province were analyzed with linear trend,the climate trend rate and wavelet analysis method.Also in three different baseline periods,the variation of average beginning and ending date of cold wave were analyzed.These studies complemented and perfected the climatic characteristics of cold wave in Anhui,and could improve the service capacity of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation.The results showed that there were obvious differences on spatial distribution of cold wave frequency.More cold waves occurred in north mountain areas in recent 52years in Anhui province.There were three significant periods:22years about,10 to 12years and six years or so.The average beginning date of the cold wave in each station in Anhui postponed from north to south,and the situation of the average ending date was similar.Cold wave occurred mainly in wintertime from February to March and November to December.The inter-annual variation of cold wave was great,and tended to decrease in the annual frequency.The average beginning date of cold wave tended to postpone,while its end date advanced.The global warming may be the possible reason for the climate change of cold wave in Anhui.