电网短期负荷预测管理系统的应用研究

Application and Research of Short-term Load Forecasting Management System for a Certain Power Network

电力系统短期负荷预测作为同业对标重要考核内容,是电网调度机构制定发供电计划和做好电网供需平衡的关键,同时在电网规划和电网建设中发挥着重要的作用。以某地区电网短期负荷预测管理系统为平台,以日负荷相对误差、日负荷预测准确率、日最高负荷预测准确率、日最低负荷预测准确率为评价指标,分别对比了该系统采用的时间序列法、相似日法、人工神经网络法、基于数据库的新方法的精度,并对预测结果进行了分析和比较,给出了未来短期负荷预测的发展方向。

As one important content of electric benchmarking electric,power system short-term load forecasting,which playing an important part in power grid construction,is the key of planning generation and keeping balance between supply and demand for dispatching and control center. Based on power network short-term load forecasting management system in certain area,time series method,similar day method,Artificial Neural Network method,and a new forecast method was used to forecasts the daily load.According to the comparison of forecasting results of the above four methods,the causes of forecasting errors were analyzed and the research direction of short-term load forecasting was brought out.