基于短期降雨预报信息的水库汛限水位实时动态控制方法研究及风险分析

Real-time dynamic control of reservoir waterlevel in flood season and its risk analysis based on short-term rainfall forecast information

根据汛限水位动态控制新理念,以提高洪水资源利用率为目标,研究了利用短期降雨预报信息进行水库汛限水位动态控制的实时调度方法;同时对发生降雨预报漏报误差时水库本身及上下游可能产生的风险进行了分析。漳泽水库应用实例表明:在不降低水库本身及上下游防洪标准的前提下,可使漳泽水库洪水资源得到充分利用。基于短期降雨预报信息的水库汛限水位实时动态控制方法,对调节性能好且具有防洪任务的大型水库汛期实时调度有较好的借鉴意义。

Based on the new conception of the dynamic control of reservoir waterlevel in flood season,tar-geted at improving the efficiency to use water resources,a real-time operation method which uses short-term rainfall forecast to carry out dynamic control of reservoir waterlevel in flood season is proposed in thispaper,and its risk associated with dam itself,upstream and downstream regions when the error of missingrainfall forecast occurs is also analyzed. The application in Zhangze reservoir shows that the dynamic con-trol of reservoir waterlevel in flood season can ensure the safety of the dam,upstream and downstream re-gions,and the benefit in water supply also improves significantly. The studied method can also be appliedto other large reservoirs,especially for the reservoirs with excellent regulation performance and responsiblefor flood control in water shortage regions.