城市供水管网抗震安全性模糊-随机模拟评价

Assessment method for seismic safety of urban water distribution system using stochastic simulation and triangular fuzzy numbers

从地震地质条件、管网外部环境、管网内部因素、水质条件等多种角度建立城市供水管网抗震安全性综合风险评价指标体系。针对评价影响因素具有随机性、模糊性和数据资料不精确等多种不确定性,利用随机模拟方法模拟三角模糊数,把三角模糊数及其函数之间的运算简化为普通的实数之间的运算,从而建立城市供水管网抗震安全性模糊数随机模拟综合风险评价模型。研究表明,在评价结果一致的前提下以置信区间形式表示的综合风险评价结果比其他常规方法提供的信息更加丰富,充分反映了受多种不确定性因素综合影响的城市供水管网抗震安全性综合风险评价的客观实际情况,研究结果可为城市供水管网系统安全运行和升级改造提供决策依据。

The index system of comprehensive risk assessment for seismic performance of urban water distribution system was established from the following aspects as earthquake and engineering geology、external and internal factors of water supply network、water quality,and so on.According to many uncertainty factors such as randomness,fuzziness and the shortage and imprecision of datum information,Monte-Carlo method was presented to simulate triangular fuzzy numbers for transforming the operations of triangular fuzzy numbers and their functions into the conventional operations of real numbers,and then an aggregative risk assessment method using stochastic simulation and triangular fuzzy numbers for seismic performance of urban water distribution system was established.The application results showed that the assessment expressed by confidence intervals can provide more reliability information than that of common evaluation methods,and can also be applied to comprehensive risk assessment problems of different seismic performance of urban water distribution system affected by many uncertainty factors.