政治不确定性与企业投资——来自中国省长更换的经验证据

Political uncertainty and corporate investment:evidence from the replacement of Governors in China

本文以沪深上市企业为研究对象,考察由省级领导人变动所产生的政治不确定性对企业投资行为的影响,从而揭示我国地方政府领导人的变动对当地上市企业投资水平带来的经济后果。实证结果表明,正常换届的省长变动对企业投资水平有显著的正效应,非正常换届的省长变动对企业无显著影响,并且这种情况主要表现在沿海地区,研究结论表明我国存在政治不确定性对企业投资的影响,也为地方经济增长的周期性提供了一种微观解释。

Using the data of the listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets,this paper investigates the influence of Governor replacement on corporate investment.The results show that normal transition has positive effect on corporate investment which is more significant in coastal area while sudden replacement has no positive effect.The conclusion that political uncertainty exerts influence on corporate investment can be an underlying reason for the cyclical local economic growth in China.