基于互谱分析的空管安全风险相关性研究

A Research on Correlation of Air Traffic Control Safety Risks Based on Cross-spectrum Analysis

针对空中交通安全风险因素的特点,选取某机场陆空通讯失误事件作为样本数据,运用互谱分析在时间序列方面的优势,分析了空管安全风险因素对不安全事件的贡献度、超前滞后关系及相关性。结果显示,程序偏差对空管通讯失误事件的影响力达49%,设备故障和外来干扰的影响力分别为18%和4.8%,且具有同步影响效应,人员加班在3个月的短周期和9个月的长周期的影响力均为12%。在此基础上提出通讯失误风险的预控策略,即加强空管通讯程序执行的过程管理,合理调配空管通讯的相关资源,优化管制工作人员的排班计划,从而预先防范通讯不安全事件及事故的发生。

According to the features of air traffic control ( ATC ) safety risk factors , the events of air-ground communication failure in the airport are chosen as the sample data .Taking the advantage of cross-spectrum analysis in the aspect of time series , the contribution , lead-lag relationship and correlation of ATC safety risk factors are analyzed .The results show that the influence of process deviation to ATC unsafe events is 49%.The influence of equipment failures and external interference , respectively 18% and 4.8%, has synchronization effect .Therefore, aiming at the decisions of communication unsafe events for pre-control strategies, process management of communication program execution should be strengthened , pertinent resources be allocated reasonably , and the shift arrangement plan optimized so as to prevent from communication unsafe events and accidents .