主权争端下的南海安全局势及其走向

Security Situation in South China Sea and its Future Development under Sovereignty Disputes

随着域外大国介入南海事务的力度不断加大,南海主权争端更加激化,安全局势日趋紧张,发生军事冲突和战争的风险明显提高。但遏制军事冲突和战争的因素也在同步增强,发生大规模军事冲突和战争的可能性不大。未来,南海主权争端仍将维持一定热度,但各个当事国将更加重视既得利益的维护、开发与利用。

As external powers continue to increase their involvement in the South China Sea affairs, the South China Sea sovereignty dispute intensifies, security situation in the region is deteriorating and the impending risk of military conflict and even a war is increasing obviously. While on the other hand, the factors that contain the outbreak of conflict and war are increasing simultaneously. Therefore, it is unlikely that large-scale military conflict and war will happen. In the years to come, the sovereignty disputes over the South China Sea will go on as it is now, but more attention will be given by the countries concerned to protecting, developing and advancing their invested interests.