美国亚太再平衡战略的制衡逻辑——兼论中美互动的关系样态

The Logic of America's Rebalance Strategy:A Model of the Sino-U.S. Interactive Relations

在权力转移的宏观场域中,美国亚太再平衡战略嵌入了现实主义的制衡逻辑,主要目标是抑止中国的权力增长。美国运用丰富的资源和工具对中国采取复合型制衡策略,包括提升自身实力、运用联盟资源、利用海洋争端、借助国际规则等多种制衡方式。由于制衡存在巨额成本,且加剧了中美猜疑的螺旋上升,容易诱发中美战略冲突。美国亚太再平衡战略将受自身权力生产能力下降、东亚二元结构及联盟关系不对称和中国反制衡能力提升等因素影响,其成效充满不确定性。未来中美两国应该转变思维,探索新型大国关系的互动范式,努力走出"修昔底德困境"。

In the international arena of power transition,American rebalancing in Asian Pacific embraces the realist thoughts of balance,which aims to restrain the rise of China.The United States uses its rich resources and many tools to balance China in a composite manner,including increasing its own power,building alliance, utilizing marine conflicts,and resorting to international rules.Balancing has considerable costs,and it in turn strengthens spirally the mutual suspicions between China and the United States,triggering potential strategic risks.The decrease of American productive power,and the asymmetry of East Asian dual structure and alliance system,and the increase of China’s counter measure forces,make its balancing effect uncertain.In the future, China and the United States should change their minds,seek a new interactive model,and try to get out of Thucydides’s trap.