中国能源安全分析与展望

China Energy Security Analysis and Projection

2013年,世界能源贸易和消费格局仍在不断变化,而煤炭、石油、天然气三大化石能源都为净进口的中国,在新的发展背景下,更应注重能源安全问题。在此背景下,从储采比、对外依存度、进口渠道、储备、价格、生产安全和清洁利用7个维度对煤炭、石油和天然气的供应安全和使用安全进行剖析,并对2014年中国能源安全状况进行剖析与展望。研究结果表明:2013年中国能源供应安全状况基本良好,能源使用安全有所下降,总体上能源安全状况同比有所提升。同时,展望2014年,世界经济将呈现渐进性复苏态势,能源需求量将会进一步提升,这将会给能源安全带来一定的挑战,因此还需从加快储备建设、拓展能源供给地、合理地与国际能源价格接轨、制定高效的应急响应预案、加强能源生产安全、降低化石能源的污染排放等方面做出努力,以确保中国能源安全强度的稳定提升。

In 2013, the pattern of the world energy trade and consumption changed a lot, and three main types of fossil energy of China are under the condition of net imports. Thus more attention should be paid to the issue of energy security when discussing the new development background. In the macro background of the world politics and economics, the article analyzes the security of energy supply and consumption from the following dimensions including reserve and production ratio, external dependence, importing channel, energy reserves, energy price, production safety and clean utilization of three fossil energy. At the same time, the tendency of energy security in 2014 is predicated at the end of the article. The analysis shows that energy security in 2013 has improved and in 2014 we must pay more attention to reserving system construction, broadening energy supply channel, establishing efficient emergency response plans, reducing pollution emissions of fossil energy, and some other aspects to prevent the possible risks from the increasing demand of energy.