地方政府财政行为周期性、产业成长与结构失衡——基于产业外部融资依赖度的分析

The Periodicity of Local Government Fiscal Behavior,Industry Growth and Structural Imbalance:Analysis Based on External Financing Dependence of Industries

本文基于产业对外部融资的依赖程度,考察了地方政府的财政行为特征对产业成长的影响以及对产业结构失衡的调节作用。基于双重差分法的基本思路,综合使用1998-2007年的区域、产业和企业数据进行了实证研究;结果表明,就财政支出缺口对产出缺口的反应而言,在那些地方政府财政行为反周期性更强的地区,对于外部融资具有更高依赖的产业获得了更快的成长。同时,转型背景下的体制性约束显著影响着反周期性财政行为的作用,这是因为:其一,国有企业和私营企业外部融资成本的差别,使二者对财政行为的反应存在显著差异;其二,在市场机制尚不成熟和完善的条件下,提高市场化水平能够显著强化反周期性财政行为的功效。我们的研究表明,地方政府财政行为模式的合理化对于缓解产业结构失衡具有积极意义。

Based on industries' dependence on external financing,this paper explores the effect of fiscal behavior features of local governments on industry growth and the coordination role in the imbalance of industrial structure.By the difference-in-difference method,it makes an empirical study using region,industry and firm data from 1998 to 2007comprehensively.It comes to the conclusions that,in terms of the reaction of fiscal expenditure gap to output gap,industries with stronger dependence on external financing growth rapidly in regions with more intense counter-cyclical fiscal behavior of local governments.Meanwhile,institutional constraints under transition background significantly affect the role of counter-cyclical fiscal behavior:on the one hand,the differences in external financing costs in state-owned and private firms lead to significant differences in their response to fiscal behavior;on the other hand,on the condition of market mechanism not yet mature and perfect,the rise in marketization can obviously strengthen the role of countercyclical fiscal behavior.It shows that the rationalization of fiscal behavior modes of local governments is of great significance to the alleviation of the imbalance of industrial structure.