中国最优货币政策的选择、比较和影响——基于混合型新凯恩斯模型的实证研究

The Choice,Comparison and Impact of Optimal Monetary Policy in China:Empirical Study Based on Hybrid New Keynesian Model

文章通过构建和估计一个混合型新凯恩斯模型,首次检验了中国最优货币政策的类型,并系统比较了相机抉择和事先承诺的货币政策对中国经济的影响。文章综合运用极大似然估计法、反事实仿真、似然比检验、贝叶斯信息准则、二阶矩比较和脉冲响应等方法研究发现:(1)我国实施的货币政策与最优货币政策不存在显著差异,我国的最优货币政策类型是相机抉择的货币政策;(2)在我国,相机抉择、事先承诺的货币政策和最优泰勒规则都把产出稳定作为最重要的政策目标,其次是通胀稳定;(3)相对于事先承诺,相机抉择的货币政策使我国的产出和通胀更不稳定,并造成更大的社会福利损失;(4)在我国货币政策调控中,最优泰勒规则可以很好地近似和代替事先承诺的货币政策。

By constructing and estimating a hybrid new Keynesian model,this paper tests the type of optimal monetary policy in China for the first time and systematically compares the effects of discretion-based and precommitment-based monetary policies on Chinese economy.It comprehensively uses maximum likelihood estimation method,counterfactual simulation,likelihood ration test,Bayesian information criterion,a comparison of the second-order moment and impulse response to arrive at the conclusions as follows:firstly,the monetary policy implemented in China is not significantly different from optimal monetary policy,and optimal monetary policy in China is discretion-based monetary policy;secondly,discretion &precommitment-based monetary policies and optimal Taylor rule take output stability as the most important goal of monetary policy,followed by inflation stability;thirdly,compared to precommitment,discretion-based monetary policy leads to more obvious output and inflation instability and more losses of social welfare in China;fourthly,as for monetary policy control in China,optimal Taylor rule can be a good approximate of or a sound substitute for precommitment-based monetary policy.