劳动市场摩擦、工资刚性与中国的通货膨胀持续性——基于不同工资竞价模型的动态分析

Labor Market Friction,Wage Rigidity and Inflation Persistence in China:A Dynamic Analysis Based on Different Wage Bargaining Models

现有研究表明,中国的通货膨胀具有明显的持续性特征,厘清产生这一特征的内在经济逻辑对于货币政策的分析与制定具有非常重要的意义。考虑到中国经济转型时期劳动市场的重要变化,文章在新凯恩斯框架下通过引入劳动市场摩擦与工资刚性,对中国通货膨胀持续性的产生机制进行了深入分析。结果表明:(1)劳动市场摩擦对货币政策的传导机制具有重要影响:货币政策的变化会导致经济总需求的变化,当总需求增加时,预期利润的提高使厂商提供更多的工作岗位,从而就业增加,但由于存在搜寻匹配摩擦,劳动市场的调整具有滞后性,从而工作时间的变化相对平滑,这延缓了厂商边际成本的变化,由此导致通货膨胀的变化相对缓慢。(2)在引入工资刚性后,工资的动态调整变得更加平滑,从而增强了通货膨胀的持续性。相对于有效纳什竞价模型,在管理权竞价模型中,厂商和工人不需要围绕工作时间和工资进行博弈,工作时间的变化不会导致工资的即时调整,从而进一步增强了通货膨胀的持续性。

Recent studies show that inflation in China is obviously featured by persistence and the clarification of the internal economic logic of the generation of this feature is of great importance to the analysis and formulation of monetary policy.Taking the important changes in labor market in China during the economic transition period into account,this paper deep analyzes the generation mechanism of inflation persistence by introducing labor market friction and wage rigidity into new Keynesian framework.It arrives at the conclusions as follows:firstly,labor market friction has the critical effect on the transmission channel of monetary policy,namely the change in monetary policy results in the change in aggregate economic demand and along with the increase in aggregate demand,the increase in expected profits leads to more provision of jobs,thereby giving rise to the rise in employment,but owing to search and matching friction,the adjustment to labor market has the hysteretic feature and thereby the changes in working hours relatively smooth,delaying the changes in marginal costs of firms and thus leading to the relatively slow changes in inflation;secondly,by introducing wage rigidity,dynamic adjustment to wages more smoothes,thereby strengthening inflation persistence.Compared to effective Nash bargaining model,in right-to-manage model,manufacturers and workers do not need to make games focusing on working hours and wages,and the changes in working hours do not lead to timely adjustment to wages,thereby further raising inflation persistence.