要素价格扭曲、外需疲软与中国制造业技术复杂度动态演进

Factor Price Distortion,Inadequate Foreign Demand and Dynamic Evolution of Chinese Manufacturing Technology Sophistication

实现制造业技术复杂度持续升级是中国提升经济质量的核心内容和重要途径,为此,揭示当前较为严峻的要素价格扭曲和外需疲软对制造业技术复杂度的作用机制显得十分迫切。文章基于企业异质性理论,构建计量模型(Heckman选择模型),从"质变"和"量变"升级视角对上述作用机制进行实证检验。得到的结论与启示主要有:(1)中国制造业要素价格扭曲有加剧的倾向,但速度明显放缓,要素价格扭曲已经成为中国制造业技术复杂度升级和赶超的"助推型资源";(2)外需疲软会改变本土企业技术复杂度演进的原有"轨迹",对外资企业"演进轨迹"的影响不明显;(3)中国制造业企业存在显著的"技术复杂度革新惰性",经营经验越丰富和全要素生产率越高的企业所具备的"惰性"越明显;(4)人力资本和物质资本是我国制造业技术复杂度升级和赶超的核心动力,生产性补贴并未起到提升中国制造业技术复杂度的作用。

The realization of constant upgrading of manufacturing technology sophistication is the core content and critical path of the increase in economic quality in China.Therefore,it is very urgent to reveal the roles of current severe factor price distortion and inadequate foreign demand in manufacturing techology sophistication.Based on firm heterogeneity theory,this paper constructs an econometric model(Heckman selection model)and empirically studies the effects of factor price distortion and inadequate foreign demand on manufacturing technology sophistication from the perspectives of qualitative and quantitative upgrading.It comes to the following results:firstly,factor price distortion of Chinese manufacturing has an intensifying tendency,but slows down obviously;and factor price distortion has become the'boosting resource'of upgrading and catching-up of Chinese manufacturing technology sophistication;secondly,inadequate foreign demand can change the original trail of technology sophistication evolution of native enterprises and has no obvious effect on the evolution trail of foreign-invested enterprises;thirdly,in Chinese manufacturing enterprises there is the significant inertia of technology sophistication innovation,and enterprises with richer experience and higher TFP have more obvious'inertia';fourthly,human capital and physical capital are the core forces of upgrading and catching-up of Chinese manufacturing technology sophistication,and production subsidies do not play a role in the increase in Chinese manufacturing technology sophistication.