财政支出结构对居民消费率影响及传导机制研究——基于三部门动态随机一般均衡模型的模拟分析

On the Effect of Fiscal Expenditure Structure on Household Consumption Rate and Transmission Mechanisms:Simulation Analysis Based on Three-sector DSGE Model

文章在动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型框架下,将政府消费性支出和转移支付引入家庭部门,将政府投资性支出和服务性支出引入生产部门,并利用贝叶斯估计方法,分析政府消费性支出、转移支付、投资性支出和服务性支出对居民消费、消费率的影响与传导机制。结果表明:(1)增加政府消费性支出在长期内不仅挤出居民消费,而且导致居民消费率下降。(2)增加政府转移支付能够有效刺激居民消费,具有挤入效应,并且在长期内促进居民消费率提高。(3)增加政府投资性支出在长期内对居民消费具有挤入效应,但在一段时期内会导致居民消费率下降。(4)增加政府服务性支出能有效挤入居民消费,并在长期内促进居民消费率提高。

Based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)framework,this paper introduces government consumption expenditures &transfer payments into household sector,and government investment &service expenditures into production sector,and employs Bayes estimation method to analyze the effect of four types of government expenditures on household consumption and consumption rate.It comes to the results as follows:firstly,in the long term,the increase in government consumption expenditures not only crowds out household consumption,but also results in the reduction in household consumption rate;secondly,the increase in government transfer payments can effectively stimulate household consumption,having crowd-in effect,and prompt the increase in household consumption rate in the long term;thirdly,the increase in government investment expenditures has the crowding-in effect on household consumption,but may lead to a decline in household consumption rate in a certain period;fourthly,the increase in government service expenditures can effectively crowd in household consumption,and promote the increase in household consumption rate in the long term.