基于扩展引力模型的中国双边金融服务贸易出口潜力研究

On the Export Potential of China's Bilateral Financial Services Trade Based on the Augmented Gravity Model

文章基于扩展的引力模型对中国双边金融服务出口的决定因素及出口潜力进行了经验研究,结果发现:进出口双方的GDP、双边距离、是否使用共同语言及进出口双方的经济自由度会对中国双边金融服务出口产生显著的影响;中国大陆对主要的金融服务出口市场(包括中国香港、美国、卢森堡和德国等)普遍"贸易过度",而对"小型"的出口市场则普遍"贸易不足";经济自由化模拟的结果表明,放松国内经济管制,提高经济的自由度,会大大促进中国金融服务出口的发展,而通过提高贸易伙伴的经济自由度来促进中国双边金融服务出口的发展则空间非常有限。最后,文章根据实证分析的结论,提出了促进中国金融服务出口发展的对策建议。

Based on the augmented gravity model,this paper empirically analyzes the determinants and export potential of China's bilateral financial services export.It comes to the results as follows:firstly,GDP,bilateral distance,common language and economic freedom of importers and exporters have significant effects on China's bilateral financial services export;secondly,the Chinese mainland's export to its major financial services markets such as Hong Kong,USA,Luxemburg and Germany is featured by extensively excessive trade,and the export to small export markets generally insufficient trade;thirdly,the simulation of economic freedom reveals that the relaxation of domestic economic regulation and the increase in economic freedom can greatly promote the development of China's financial services export,and there is very limited space for the promotion of China's bilateral financial services export by the increase in economic freedom of trade partners.Finally,according to the conclusions of the empirical analysis,it puts forward suggestions on how to promote the development of China's financial services export.