哪种价格指数为中国货币政策提供了更多的通货膨胀信息?

Which Price Index Can Provide More Inflation Information for China's Monetary Policy?

关于中国货币政策或者通货膨胀的现有研究文献忽略了一个十分重要的问题,即哪种价格指数为中国货币政策提供了更多的通货膨胀信息。文章首次对该问题进行了深入研究。文章基于泰勒规则,引入利率平滑、前瞻性等因素,构建了中国货币政策动态反应函数,并采用GMM方法比较了四种不同的通货膨胀率指标所隐含的信息。研究发现:居民消费价格指数CPI和商品零售价格指数RPI为货币政策提供的通胀信息要多于工业品出厂价格指数PPI和GDP平减指数,同时RPI又略优于CPI;不管基于哪种指标计算通货膨胀率,我国利率均存在明显的平滑行为。在以CPI和RPI作为通货膨胀率的计算指标时,货币政策反应函数在大多数样本区间是稳健的,但我国的货币政策是不稳定的。以上新发现为中央银行改进现有通货膨胀率指标,并依据更加准确反映通货膨胀信息的价格指数来有效实施货币政策调控提供了科学依据。

Present literature concerning China's monetary policy or inflation neglects a very important issue that which price index can provide more inflation information for China's monetary policy.This paper studies this issue for the first time.Based on Taylor rule,it introduces factors like interest rate smoothing and forward-looking and sets up dynamic reaction function of China's monetary policy.Then it compares information embodied in four types of inflation rate indexes by GMM.It arrives at the main findings as follows:firstly,CPI and RPI provide more inflation information for monetary policy than PPI and GDP deflator index,and RPI is slightly better than CPI;secondly,there exists obviously smoothing behavior concerning China's interest rates;thirdly,regarding CPI and RPI as the indexes of inflation rates,the reaction function of monetary policy is robust in most of sample intervals,but monetary policy in China is unstable.The new findings above-mentioned provide scientific evidence for the improvement of current inflation rate indexes and effective implementation of monetary policy control through price indexes providing more accurate inflation information.