中国居民消费率缘何下降?——基于宏观消费函数的多因素分解

Why Does Household Consumption Rate in China Decrease?Multi-factor Decomposition Based on Macro Consumption Function

文章在论证收入分配等多个因素对居民消费率影响的基础上,构建了一个包含基尼系数在内的多变量宏观消费函数,并建立了基于城乡分割的居民消费率分解模型,使用该模型对1996-2010年中国居民消费率下降的原因进行了完备分解。结果表明:(1)居民收入比重下降是居民消费率下降的主要原因,其贡献率为64.49%;(2)国民收入增长是居民消费率下降的次要原因,其贡献率为32.66%;(3)城乡居民消费倾向下降的贡献率分别为13.21%和1.51%;(4)城乡内部基尼系数增大的贡献率分别为2.20%和1.80%;(5)城镇化提高和城乡收入差距扩大的贡献率分别为-12.47%和-3.6%(即提高了居民消费率)。

Based on the confirmation of the effect of some factors like income distribution on household consumption rate,this paper constructs a multi-variable macro consumption function including Gini coefficient.Then it builds a decomposition model concerning household consumption rate based on urban-rural dual structure and uses it to decompose reasons for the reduction in household consumption rate in China from 1996to2010.It reaches the following conclusions:firstly,the reduction in household consumption rate mainly lies in the decline in residents' income share which provides a 64.49%contribution rate;secondly,the growth of national income is the second most important reason for the reduction in household consumption rate,providing a 32.66% contribution rate;thirdly,the contribution rates of the decline in urban and rural residents' propensity to consume are 13.21% and 1.51%respectively;fourthly,the contribution rates of the increase in urban and rural Gini coefficients are 2.20%and 1.80%respectively;fifthly,the contribution rates of the increase in urbanization level and the enlargement of urban-rural income gap are-12.47%and-3.6%respectively,resulting in the increase in household consumption rate.