劳动力投入、能源消费与经济发展有序度研究——基于指标集的考察

The Research on the Order Degree of Labor Force and Energy Consumption with Economic Development—Investigation Based on the Index Set

劳动力投入、能源消费与经济发展间的协调有序是实现经济可持续发展的关键环节。经济系统基本符合耗散结构特征,可以运用熵变值来度量系统有序度的动态变化。从多个维度构建较为全面的劳动力投入、能源消费与经济发展三大指标集,运用灰关联熵模型对全国1990—2010年间劳动力-能源-经济三大系统及两两系统间的有序度进行分析,结果显示:在样本期内,总体而言,劳动力投入、能源消费与经济发展的熵变值在0上下徘徊、波动,即三者的有序度发展趋势不明确。分时期来看,1999年之前劳动力投入与经济发展、能源消费与经济发展、劳动力投入与能源消费以及劳动力投入、能源消费与经济发展这四条曲线波动较大,之后波动趋于平稳。从曲线波动程度看,上下波动最大的是劳动力投入与经济发展的熵变值曲线,而波动较平稳的是能源消费与劳动力投入的熵变值曲线,二者有序度相对较好。

The orderly development of labor force-energy-economy is the key to realize the sustainable development of economy.Economic system is basically in line with the characteristics of dissipative structure, entropy value can be used to measure the dynamic change of the system order degree. This paper constructs three comprehensive labor input, energy consumption and economic development indexes set from multiple dimensions, and utilize gray relational entropy model to analyze the order degree of labor force-energy-economy and between each two of them from 1990—2010 in China. The results show that: in the sample period,from the aspects of the overall, the entropy value of labor force-energy-economy system wanders up and down at zero, in other words, the development trend of the system is not clear. From the aspects of different periods, the four curves of Labor input and economic development, energy consumption and economic development, labor input and energy consumption and labor input, energy consumption and economic development before 1999 fluctuate comparatively large, and fluctuation levels off after that. From the aspects of different curve, the entropy value one between the labor input and the economic development fluctuates largest, and the curve of energy consumption and labor input fluctuates relatively stable, whose order degree is relatively better.