社会保障水平变动规律的跨国实证分析

The Variation Trend of Social Security Level:A Empirical Study of Cross-country Regressions

根据OECD国家1980~2012年面板数据,构建了跨国回归模型,对社会保障水平与经济发展阶段之间的相互关系进行了实证分析。社会保障水平与经济发展阶段存在同步协调性,社会保障水平与人均GDP呈现倒U曲线变动规律。社会保障水平与失业率、公民政治参与程度、人口老龄化正相关,与政府税收收入占GDP比例负相关。基于跨国回归模型,测定了2000~2050年中国社会保障水平模拟值和适度水平。社会保障现实水平显著低于模拟值和适度水平下限,表明现阶段社会保障水平与经济发展协调性较差。为此,提出中国社会保障水平应与人均国民收入同步增长、提高真实就业率、加快完善收入分配及社会保障制度等政策建议。

According to the panel data of the OECD countries from 1980 to 2012,the article has established the model of cross-country regressions and made empirical analysis on the relationship between the level of social security and economic development stages. The results strongly showed that there exists the synchronous coordination relationship of social security and economic development,and may be a inverted U-shaped curve relation between the social security level and GDP per capita. The article has found that the level of social security was positively correlated with unemployment,the citizen political participation and the aging population,was negatively related to the government tax revenue as a share of GDP. Based on the model of cross-county regressions above,the simulation value and moderate level of Chinese social security were determined from 2000 to 2050. The reality level of social security was significantly lower than the simulation value and the minimum moderate level of social security,which showed poor coordination between the level of social security and economic development. Therefore,we put forward some policy proposals which China's social security level should be increase in step with national income per capita,boosting the real rate of employment,improve the income distribution system and reform the social security system.