近年来印巴关系之新态势:动因与挑战

The New Trend of India-Pakistan Relations in Recent Years:Dynamics and Challenges

印巴关系在2009年印度大选后虽起伏跌宕,但整体上朝着积极方向发展。由于两国战略认知的转变、经贸关系的升华以及南亚地区形势的变迁、国际促和力量的推动,印巴两国在政治互信、反恐合作、经贸合作、能源合作等领域取得了积极进展。然而,由于彼此国内"不和"力量的存在,在反恐议题上的分歧,以及两国在军备竞争、克什米尔争端以及安全战略方面的现实主义考虑,制约着未来印巴关系的走向。

With the end of India' s premier election in 2009,relations between India and Pakistan endured the process of ups and downs. But their bilateral relations had been towards positive direction. The two countries made new progress due to the following reasons: the change of cognitive strategy,the continuous sublimation on economic and trade relationship,the changes of south Asia regional situation and international powers to promote peaceful coexistence between India and Pakistan. The two counties made new progress on the issue of bilateral political trust,anti- terrorism coordination,economic and trade,energy cooperation. However,with the existence of those restricting factors,the future tread of India- Pakistan relations would have some obstacles,including domestic forces against peace from each other,different ideas on anti- terrorism issues,the realistic perspective of the armament competition,Kashmir dispute and the security strategy.