基于二项式实物期权的探矿权转让的价值评估

The valuation of mineral exploration transfer based on the binomial real options

实物期权估值(ROV)方法在不确定条件下最优投资决策的应用是一种非常有价值的方法,但由于其复杂的计算,在采矿业的实际应用一直比较缓慢。针对传统的净现值法和实物期权法在矿业权评估的缺陷,从探矿权项目股权收购方的角度出发,通过探矿权转让协议如何作为一系列连续复合实物期权估算其价值的实例,采用二项式网格方法和风险中性概率计算探矿权中标的资产相应各期的期权价值,以期为现实的探矿权转让协议中评估更复杂的连续时间复合实物期权提供一个新的视角。

Real options valuation (ROV) method is a very valuable method for optimal investment decisions under conditions of uncertainty, but it has been used for the practical application of the mining industry slowly because of its complex calculations. With the development of binomial grid method, it is simplified and has been applied to daily financial evaluation and decision-making under conditions of uncertainty in recent years. We use the binomial method and risk-neutral probability to calculate each of option value of the assets on the acquirer’s equity interest in the project, by an example How to Transfer Agreement by prospecting complex as a series of successive instances of real options to estimate their value. Our purpose is to provide a new perspective for assessing more complex transfer agreement in continuous time compound real option.