基于克里格重构的区域地磁变化场短时预测模型

Regional geomagnetic short-term forecasting model based on Kriging reconstruction method

区域地磁变化场建模与预测是地磁辅助导航、空间环境监测与预报等领域的重要研究课题。结合时域上的单台站地磁变化场预测,以及空间域上的区域地磁变化场重构,提出了一种基于克里格重构的区域地磁变化场短时预测模型。以区域范围(101°E^111°E,30°N^40°N)的地磁测站2009年的数据为实例,结果表明:1)基于克里格方法重构的区域地磁变化场Z分量,准确合理的反映了其时空变化特性;2)在短时预测中,区域模型能紧跟地磁变化场的变化趋势,说明其能很好地描述变化磁场的时空演化特性,且位于区域边缘的台站预测误差稍大。当预测期为1 h、6 h、12 h、24 h时,区域地磁变化场预测模型的平均绝对误差分别为1.67 nT、2.19 nT、2.72 nT、3.14 nT。

The modeling and forecasting of regional geomagnetic variation field is an important research topic of geomagnetic navigation and space environment monitoring. Combining the time-domain forecasting of the single geomagnetic observatory and the space-domain reconstruction of the regional geomagnetic variation field, this paper proposes a regional geomagnetic forecasting model based on Kriging reconstruction method. It shows that: 1) the regional geomagnetic Z component reconstructed by Kriging method can reasonably and accurately reflect its spatial-temporal variation characteristics; 2) the regional model can closely keep up with the trend of geomagnetic variation field in short-term forecasting, which indicates that the model can accurately describe the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics. The forecasting errors of geomagnetic observatory located in the area edge are larger. When the forecasting period is 1 h, 6 h, 12 h, 24 h, the mean absolute error of the regional model is 1.67 nT, 2.19 nT, 2.72 nT and 3.14 nT, respectively.