经济周期性波动影响长期增长的门槛效应:假设与实证

The Threshold Effect of Economic Cyclical Fluctuation on Long-term Economic Growth: A Hypothesis and An Empirical Analysis

本文基于改革开放以来全国加总时序数据和分地区、分行业面板数据,在考虑到处于不同波动状态的经济周期性波动对长期增长可能存在非线性影响的假设下,运用门槛回归模型,研究了我国经济波动对经济增长的影响。研究结果表明:我国经济周期性波动对经济增长的影响存在波动门槛效应;在低波动时期,经济波动对经济增长的影响有减损效应,但不同工业行业的表现各异,竞争性行业对增长有负影响,垄断性行业则有正影响;在高波动时期,波动对增长的影响正向不显著。

Based on the national aggregation time-series data and panel data by areas and industries since the reform and opening up, under the assumption that the relationship between economic cyclical fluctuation and economic growth is nonlinear in different state of fluctuation, the paper studies the effect of economic fluctuation on economic growth in China utilizing the Threshold Regression Model. The results show that there exists a threshold effect of the economic cyclical fluctuation on the economic growth. As a whole, in the low fluctuation phase, the economic fluctuation has a derogation effect on the economic growth, but the effect is various in different industries. Competitive industries have the negative effect on the growth while monopoly industries have the positive effect. In the high fluctuation phase, the positive effect of the fluctuation on the growth is not significant.