轨道交通BT项目风险分担研究

Study on risk allocation in rail transit BT projects

风险分担是轨道交通BT项目实施过程中要解决的关键问题之一,合理的风险分担能够提高项目绩效,有助于项目成功。目前关于轨道交通BT项目的风险分担主要都是定性研究,有必要探讨一种定性和定量结合的风险分担模型,以期合理分担项目风险。遵循BT项目风险分担的5个原则,将Shapley值与BT项目风险分担的5个影响因素结合,构建基于Shapley值修正法的轨道交通BT项目风险分担模型,并以深圳地铁五号线BT项目为例进行检验。运用WBS-RBS,方法识别深圳地铁五号线BT项目的风险因素,通过构建的风险分担模型对这些因素进行风险分担分析,得出深圳地铁五号线BT项目的风险分担基本合理,但不利物质条件和不可抗力风险都归属于BT主办人,加大了BT主办人风险的结论。对于法律变更和税收制度变化风险没有提及,容易引起合同实施过程中的纠纷。

In the implementation process of rail transit BT projects,risk allocation is one of the key issues to be addressed. Proper risk allocation can improve the performance and guarantee the success of the projects. At present,most of the research on risk allocation in rail transit BT project is qualitative,so it is necessary to design a risk allocation model based on qualitative and quantitative method to allocate the project risks properly. According to the five basic principles of risk allocation,a risk allocation model of rail transit BT projects based on the revised Shapley value is built by combining the Shapley value with the five risk allocation influence factors of BT projects. Then Shenzhen Subway Line5 Project is analyzed as example to test the model. Simultaneously,the risk factors of Shenzhen Subway Line 5 BT project are identified by WBS-RBS method and analyzed by the risk allocation model. The conclusion is that the risk allocation of Shenzhen Subway Line 5 BT Project is basically proper,but the adverse conditions risk and force majeure risk allocated to the BT organizer increases the risk of BT organizer. And it is easy to cause dispute in the process of contract implementation if the risks of law changes and tax system changes are ignored.